Airfreight Spot Rates Surge 41% in May. Will June Bring Relief?

Global airfreight spot rates reached $3.40 per kilogram in May 2026, up 41% year over year, according to Xeneta.

However, Middle Eastern airline capacity is recovering, summer passenger flights are increasing, and air cargo demand usually slows during the Northern Hemisphere summer. These factors may reduce rate pressure in June.

Why Did Airfreight Rates Rise So Fast?

Global air cargo volume increased only 4%, but the dynamic load factor rose to 61%.

The dynamic load factor measures how much available aircraft space is being used based on both cargo weight and volume. A higher load factor means less available space, which makes airfreight rates easier to increase.

Asia–North America Routes Drove the Increase

The rate increase was concentrated on major trans-Pacific routes.

From late February to late May:

• Northeast Asia–North America spot rates rose 39%

• Southeast Asia–North America spot rates rose 33%

• Europe–North America rates fell 26%

Data center equipment, semiconductors and other high-value components supported demand from Asia. These products often require faster and more reliable transportation.

Conflict Increased Airline Costs

The Iran war continued to affect flight safety, fuel supply and airline operations.

Airlines may reduce flights, change routes or introduce fuel and security surcharges. These costs are often passed on to freight forwarders and shippers.

Some shippers also delayed annual tenders and used short-term contract extensions. This keeps cargo moving, but short-term agreements are more exposed to spot-rate increases.

Why Rates May Cool in June

Middle Eastern airlines are gradually restoring capacity. More available cargo space could reduce pressure on rates.

Summer passenger flights also add belly cargo capacity. At the same time, summer is usually a slower period for air cargo demand.

Rates may decline gradually because airline contracts, freight forwarder quotes and capacity allocations need time to adjust.

What Shippers Should Watch

Some companies are shipping goods early by sea to avoid possible energy cost increases or peak-season delays.

If ocean shipping cannot meet delivery deadlines, part of this cargo may move to airfreight and push rates higher again.

China–U.S. low-value goods and e-commerce shipments fell 33% year over year in April 2026. However, some sellers may be combining small parcels into larger air cargo shipments, so traditional parcel data may not show the full market demand.