Los Angeles Port Cargo Could Rise 5% as Red Sea and Panama Canal Risks Shift U.S. Imports

Companies importing goods from Asia to the United States may need to reconsider which U.S. ports they use over the next several months.

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka said cargo volumes at the port could be about 5% higher year over year over the next six to eight months. Red Sea routes remain unstable, while the Panama Canal has reduced the number of ships that can transit each day. As a result, some Asian cargo originally headed to the U.S. East Coast could shift to West Coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach. (Supply Chain Dive)

The Port of Los Angeles is already coordinating with terminal operators, ocean carriers, trucking companies and labor unions to prepare for the potential increase in cargo.

Red Sea Routes Are Returning, but Schedule Risks Remain

Over the past several years, instability in the Red Sea led many shipping companies to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal and reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. These detours increased ocean transit times from Asia to Europe and on some routes to the U.S. East Coast, making arrival dates harder for importers to plan accurately.

Some routes began returning in 2026. Maersk has resumed Red Sea and Suez Canal transit for selected services. The company expects the return of its MECL service to the Suez route to shorten westbound transit times by about seven days on average and eastbound transit times by about 14 days. (Maersk)

The Red Sea, however, has not fully stabilized. If security conditions worsen again, Maersk could reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Companies using East Coast routes therefore still need to allow more flexibility in their shipping schedules. If an importer plans replenishment based on normal Suez transit times and a carrier later reroutes the vessel, the cargo could arrive later than expected and delay customer deliveries.

Panama Canal Transit Limits Could Shift More Cargo to Los Angeles Port

Below-normal rainfall in the Panama Canal watershed has also led the Panama Canal Authority to more tightly control the number of vessels that can transit each day.

Starting September 3, the Neopanamax locks were limited to nine vessels per day, while Panamax capacity was reduced to 25 vessels per day. Beginning September 15, Panamax capacity will fall further to 23 vessels per day. The Panama Canal Authority has warned that vessels without advance reservations may face longer waits, while a confirmed reservation secures a specific transit date.

The canal had also planned to further reduce the maximum allowable draft for larger vessels, but that measure has again been postponed. The maximum Neopanamax draft currently remains at 48 feet.

As of September 9, importers should therefore pay closer attention to transit slots and reservation status. For Asian cargo moving through the Panama Canal to the U.S. East Coast or Gulf Coast, whether a carrier can secure an appropriate transit time can affect the entire shipping schedule.

How to Choose Between West Coast and East Coast Routes

Asian cargo entering through West Coast ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach can cross the Pacific directly without passing through the Suez Canal or Panama Canal.

For cargo destined for California, Nevada, Arizona or other western U.S. markets, a West Coast route can be a practical choice. If the final destination is New York, New Jersey, Georgia, Florida or another eastern market, however, routing through Los Angeles or Long Beach adds cross-country rail or long-haul trucking costs.

With continued uncertainty around both the Suez and Panama canals, shifting some cargo to the U.S. West Coast could reduce both transit time and cost in certain cases. Whether it actually saves money still depends on the final destination and current ocean and inland transportation rates.

For example, an East Coast route may offer a lower ocean freight rate but face delays through the Red Sea or Panama Canal. A West Coast route may provide a more direct ocean crossing, but importers may then need to pay additional rail or long-haul trucking costs after the cargo arrives.

Over the next several months, companies shipping to the U.S. East Coast should confirm the actual routing before booking, especially whether the vessel will transit the Red Sea, Suez Canal or Panama Canal. If the shipment will use the Panama Canal, importers can also ask whether the carrier has already secured a transit reservation.

For shipments with firm delivery dates, promotional deadlines or replenishment requirements, companies can prepare alternative routing options in advance and focus on the total cost and total transit time to the final U.S. warehouse. If a company ultimately changes its U.S. port of entry, it should also arrange container pickup, rail or trucking transportation, and warehouse receiving when booking the shipment. Coordinating these inland steps in advance can reduce additional waiting after the cargo reaches port.