Red Sea Reopening Looms — Are Global Shipping Rates About to Shift?

After nearly two years of conflict-related disruption, A.P. Moller–Maersk is preparing to resume Middle East services via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, following major global supply chain adjustments.

This move raises a key question for the freight market: how will returning capacity affect global shipping rates?

Maersk’s Red Sea Return and Its Implications

Since late 2023, Houthi attacks disrupted Red Sea transits, forcing most carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk adopted one of the most conservative responses, avoiding the Red Sea entirely.

Maersk has now restarted its MECL service through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Given its traditionally strict risk management, this decision may influence other carriers. In contrast, CMA CGM maintained limited Red Sea operations throughout the crisis.

Maersk’s initial return is cautious, using smaller vessels and operating outside alliance networks, following weeks of successful trial transits.

Full recovery will be gradual

Maersk’s move does not indicate an immediate industry-wide return. While attacks have declined, security risks persist.

Industry estimates suggest that restoring stable Suez-based schedules will take three to five months, with ongoing route adjustments and potential port congestion. Suez Canal traffic remains well below pre-crisis levels, and carriers continue to proceed cautiously.

Capacity return increases downside risk for shipping rates

Extended Cape routings effectively reduced available capacity by tying up vessels. A broad return to shorter Suez routes would release an estimated 6%–8% of global container capacity.

In 2024, global container volumes reached 183 million TEU, meaning nearly 2 million TEU could re-enter the market.

Freight rates are already declining. Spot rates from the Far East are down about 43% to the U.S. East Coast and 30% to Northern Europe year over year. Market expectations point to rates returning to pre-crisis levels seen in December 2023, even without a full Red Sea normalization.