Ocean Peak Season Extends Into September. Will Freight Rates Ease in October?

U.S. import patterns have shifted quickly this year. The ocean peak season was expected to end early, but that slowdown has not materialized. Latest port data show U.S. import volumes remained high through September.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates now expect major U.S. container ports to handle 2.31 million TEUs in September, up 9.6% year over year and potentially the highest monthly volume of 2026.

In August, NRF had forecast only 2.16 million TEUs for September. The latest estimate is 150,000 TEUs higher, an increase of about 6.9%.

Why Has the U.S. Ocean Peak Season Extended Into September?

U.S. retailers imported large volumes of holiday merchandise earlier this year to get goods into the country before tariff policy changes. As a result, NRF said in August that peak season could end early and that May’s 2.24 million TEUs might remain the highest monthly volume of the year. (NRF)

Some shipments later slipped into September because of weather disruptions in China, vessel delays and Panama Canal restrictions. At the same time, U.S. retail sales rose 1.2% month over month in August, supporting continued inventory replenishment. Delayed cargo arriving alongside ongoing restocking demand ultimately extended the ocean peak season. (Supply Chain Dive)

The Port of Los Angeles reflects the same trend. The port handled 955,907 TEUs in August, while total volume from June through August exceeded 2.9 million TEUs, marking the strongest three-month period in the port’s history.

U.S. Ocean Freight Rates Remain High

1. Shanghai-to-U.S. West Coast Rates Still Exceed $7,000 per 40-Foot Container

U.S.-bound ocean freight rates have started to soften, but they remain elevated.

Drewry’s September 10 World Container Index showed spot rates of about $7,352 per 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles, up 2% from the previous week. Shanghai-to-New York rates reached about $9,726, up 1%.

Freightos data for the same period showed a similar pattern, with Asia-to-U.S. West Coast rates at roughly $7,500 per 40-foot container and Asia-to-U.S. East Coast rates close to $9,500.

2. East Coast Shipments Also Face Panama Canal Costs

Panama Canal restrictions are adding costs to some shipments moving to the U.S. East Coast.

MSC announced that, effective September 12, it would adjust its Panama Canal Surcharge for cargo moving from Asia through the canal to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast. The surcharge is $149 for a 20-foot container, $297 for a 40-foot container and $376 for a 45-foot container.

Companies planning shipments in the near term should check whether their carriers have added or adjusted Panama Canal surcharges.

Import Volumes Are Expected to Fall in October, but Freight Rates May Take Longer to Decline

NRF still expects import volumes at major U.S. ports to fall after September, from 2.31 million TEUs in September to 2.11 million TEUs in October and about 2.00 million TEUs in November.

Lower cargo volumes usually reduce upward pressure on ocean freight rates. However, Drewry data also show more blank sailings on transpacific routes. When carriers cancel sailings, they remove capacity from the market. As a result, freight rates may decline more slowly even if October import volumes fall.

China’s Golden Week in early October will also reduce some transpacific sailings. Maersk has already announced schedule adjustments, including the cancellation of one October sailing on its TP8 Asia-U.S. West Coast service and one sailing on its TP12 Asia-U.S. East Coast service.（ Maersk 2026 Golden Week schedule adjustments）

Companies planning to ship between late September and mid-October should confirm sailing schedules as early as possible.

How Should Companies Plan Their Next U.S. Shipments?

Companies should first prioritize shipments based on inventory levels and required delivery dates.

Goods tied to Black Friday, Christmas, customer delivery commitments or production schedules should prioritize arrival time. Delaying these shipments in hopes of lower rates after October could expose companies to Golden Week blank sailings, schedule changes or rail delays, which could ultimately affect sales and customer deliveries.

Companies with sufficient inventory and no firm delivery deadline can continue monitoring October and November freight rates. If import volumes decline as NRF expects and carriers do not remove capacity at the same pace, the market will have more room for a meaningful rate decline.

Companies handling both urgent cargo and routine replenishment can also split shipments by delivery priority. They can move core SKUs and products with fixed sales dates into the U.S. first, then schedule later replenishment based on actual freight rates after October. This approach can reduce both delay risk and transportation costs.