U.S. Imports Fall Sharply: Will Retailers Stop Replenishing Inventory?

Import volume is a key indicator for U.S. retail, logistics, and supply chain conditions.

It signals how inventory, freight rates, and supply chain pressure will evolve in the months ahead.

Recent reports show that retailers expect weak containerized imports and slower restocking to continue into 2026.

NRF explains that ongoing tariff pressure and trade-policy uncertainty have pushed retailers to bring goods in earlier, resulting in lower import volumes now and in the coming months.

Import volumes continue to decline

NRF’s Global Port Tracker shows a clear downtrend at major U.S. ports:

•  October: 2.07M TEUs (–1.8% m/m, –7.9% y/y)

•  November estimate: 1.91M TEUs (–11.6% y/y)

•  December forecast: 1.86M TEUs (–12.7% y/y)

November and December will likely be the weakest months of the year, with December potentially the lowest since June 2023. Policy uncertainty has made this year’s declines steeper than a normal seasonal slowdown.

Retail sales strong, imports not

NRF still expects holiday retail sales to exceed USD 1 trillion—a 3.7% to 4.2% increase from 2024.

But imports are not following the same path:

•  1H 2025: 12.53M TEUs (+3.7% y/y)

•  Full-year 2025: 25.2M TEUs (–1.4% vs. 2024)

Early strength was erased by a weaker second half, leaving total annual volume slightly below last year.

Tariffs now visible in freight demand

Tariff impacts became evident in Q4 2025 and are expected to extend into mid-2026.

 Demand for space from Asia and Europe has fallen, pushing down container rates on both coasts—an early sign of softer cargo flows.

Policy uncertainty defines the outlook

Retailers enter year-end with stocked shelves, but the direction of trade policy remains unclear.

The Trump administration has repeatedly shifted tariff schedules, while the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs. Even if overturned, tariffs could return under other laws. In short, tariff pressure will not fade quickly.

Early 2026 outlook

Import volumes are expected to remain soft:

•  January: 2.0M TEUs (first m/m rise in six months, but –10.3% y/y)

•  February: 1.86M TEUs (–8.5% y/y)

•  March: 1.79M TEUs (–16.8% y/y)

•  April: 1.97M TEUs (–10.9% y/y)

This suggests retailers will continue cautious replenishment into early 2026—slower inventory cycles, lighter demand for ocean capacity, and more moderate freight rates.